Financial Derivatives Company’s Managing Director, Bismarck Rewane, has expressed scepticism regarding the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) most recent Consumer Price Index figures.
According to the NBS report released earlier this month, Nigeria’s headline inflation decreased slightly to 23.71 per cent in April 2025, marking a marginal improvement from March’s 24.23 per cent.
In his analysis, Rewane highlighted apparent inconsistencies in the reported regional inflation patterns, noting a counterintuitive situation in which agricultural states show significantly higher inflation rates than urban consumer centres.
“Inflation was highest in three states: Benue State at 51 percent, Ekiti State at 34 percent, and Kebbi State at 33 percent—these are the food-producing states,” Rewane was quoted as saying by The Cable.
“While they were lowest in consuming states. Ebonyi State had 7.19 percent, Adamawa State had 9.52 percent, and Ogun State had 9.91 percent.
“How come the states that are producing the food have higher prices, while the states that are consuming the foodstuff are experiencing lower rates? What is happening here?
“Are those numbers credible? And if they are not, then what are we seeing here? Are we seeing some distortion in the methodology? Are we seeing a JAMB-type situation?
“It is almost inconceivable that where you have the food, prices are high, and where you are consuming the food, prices are low. The difference between Benue State and Ogun State, for example, is almost 43 percentage points. What has happened?”
Rewane likened the potential data inconsistencies to the controversial 2025 Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) examination scandal, in which technical errors compromised test results.
Addressing recent fluctuations in food prices, Rewane questioned whether the reported declines would be sustained over time.
“Food prices have come down, yes—we’ve seen some movement in some food prices—but are they sustainable? We’ve seen the price of rice, and it’s gone all over the place,” he said.
“Rice dropped, first, because of imports; second, because of the rumour that there’s poisonous rice, so people are not buying it. But we have not seen a massive shift to rice substitutes yet, so that is something that needs to be looked at.
“When you look at the food basket, you find that the price of tomatoes went up by 107 per cent due to ‘tomato ebola’, while the price of dairy remained relatively stable. So those are the things we’re looking at.
“When you examine inflation, you have to begin by asking what causes it to decline. Is it a weak exchange rate that leads to inflation, or is it inflation that leads to a weak exchange rate?”
In assessing government intervention strategies, Rewane advocated for market-based solutions rather than direct state involvement in food production or distribution.
“It’s not the government producing or selling food—that’s the wrong way to go about it,” the economist said.
“The market determines exactly what the efficient price of a commodity is—there’s an equilibrium price.
“The man who is selling rice imports it and sells it in the market. The market—and the consumer, based on his salary and demand—will buy the rice.
“I don’t think we should be seeing interventions aimed at artificially bringing down prices. Most times, there’s an output gap. That gap should be filled by those producing within the market.”
Rewane explained that while the central bank can influence demand through monetary policy and interest rate adjustments, these measures alone cannot resolve production-side challenges. He emphasised that sustainable inflation reduction requires:
- Improved power infrastructure,
- More efficient logistics,
- Lower business operating costs, and
- Enhanced agricultural productivity.
