Ten months after its rollout, Nigeria’s cash transfer program has only managed to reach about one-third of the 15 million households it was designed to support.
This leaves millions of vulnerable Nigerians struggling under weakened purchasing power.
“The government’s cash transfer program has reached 36 percent of the 15 million households targeted since October 2023,” PwC said in its latest mid-year outlook.
The initiative was launched as a response to the hardship triggered by President Bola Tinubu’s reforms—particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira. While these moves restored some confidence in the economy, they simultaneously led to record inflation and a naira devaluation of nearly 70 percent, squeezing household finances further.
According to PwC, 5.6 million households, representing 21 percent of the target, have received at least one payment since October 2023. About 2.4 million households, or 16 percent, received a second round of support, while 1.24 million (8 percent) qualified for a third round following biometric verification.
To improve coverage and transparency, the federal government in April introduced a compulsory National Identification Number (NIN) enrollment campaign. Every eligible household must now ensure that at least one adult is verified with a NIN or Bank Verification Number (BVN) before they can benefit from the scheme.
“NIN registration, especially in rural areas of the country, may improve the ability of the government to provide support to the most vulnerable households around the country,” PwC added.
Looking ahead, PwC forecasts that household spending will rebound in 2025 after years of contraction, rising to N25.7 trillion. Spending had shrunk by 0.4 percent in 2024 and by a sharp 15.9 percent in 2023. While this recovery may improve living standards, it could still be slowed by inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates.
“Real household spending may begin to recover in 2025 after contractions during 2023 and 2024; however, the pace of recovery may be hindered by persistent price pressures, high rates, and ongoing fiscal constraints,” PwC warned.
In nominal terms, spending rose by 33 percent to N142.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach N237 trillion in 2024, driven largely by rising food, transport, and essential goods costs.
PwC projects that inflation will ease to 21.46 percent in 2025, supported by tighter monetary policy and greater exchange rate stability. July data already showed inflation slowing for a fourth straight month, giving analysts reason to believe the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may soon begin relaxing interest rates.
“With inflation on a downward trajectory, the CBN may begin a gradual easing of its monetary policy in H2 2025,” PwC said.
Nigeria’s GDP growth was 3.38 per cent in 2024 following a rebasing of the economy. PwC expects modest growth of 3.4 per cent in 2025, buoyed by stronger crude oil output and improved performance in Finance, Insurance, Construction, ICT, and Real Estate.
