Oil futures gained ground Wednesday following Iran’s suspension of cooperation with U.N. nuclear oversight, though rising U.S. crude inventories capped the gains.
Brent crude increased by 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.50 per barrel at 10:44 a.m. EDT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.76 per barrel.
Brent has traded between $69.05 and $66.34 per barrel since June 25, as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions have diminished following the Iran-Israel ceasefire.
On Wednesday, Iran implemented legislation requiring Supreme National Security Council approval for future International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear site inspections. The country has accused the agency of Western bias and of justifying Israeli air strikes.
“The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium from Iran’s move on the IAEA,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS. “But this is about sentiment—there are no disruptions to oil.”
Gains were limited by a U.S. crude inventory increase of 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8-million-barrel decline. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising concerns about consumption during the peak summer driving season.
“During summertime, 9 million bpd is basically the line in the sand to define a healthy market,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. “We’re now well below that. That’s not a good sign.”
Planned supply increases by OPEC+ appear to be already priced into investor expectations and are unlikely to surprise markets, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova brokerage.
Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group plans to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month at its July 6 meeting—similar to the increases agreed upon for May, June, and July.
According to Kpler data, Saudi Arabia increased shipments in June by 450,000 barrels per day compared to May—its largest monthly increase in over a year. However, Staunovo said overall OPEC+ exports have remained relatively stable to slightly lower since March. He expects this pattern to continue through the summer as hot weather drives up energy demand.
Thursday’s U.S. monthly employment report will influence expectations regarding the timing and scale of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, said Tony Sycamore, an IG analyst.
Lower interest rates could stimulate economic activity, potentially boosting oil demand.
