Bitcoin appears to be entering a more stable and resilient phase, according to a new quarterly report jointly released by Coinbase Institutional and blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The analysis suggests that the market has moved beyond the excesses that defined recent volatility, with conditions now favouring durability over rapid price acceleration.
The report, titled Charting Crypto: Q1 2026, argues that much of the excessive leverage that previously amplified market swings was cleared during the sharp sell-off in the final quarter of last year. As a result, Bitcoin is now less exposed to cascading liquidations and better positioned to withstand macroeconomic disruptions. Rather than pointing to the early stages of another speculative surge, the findings indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro-sensitive asset, influenced by global liquidity trends, institutional capital flows, and more deliberate portfolio management.
According to the authors, the current environment marks a clear break from earlier cycles driven largely by retail speculation and aggressive leveraged trading. Instead, the market structure appears more disciplined, supported by adequate liquidity but shaped by cautious positioning from professional investors. They note that while broader financial conditions remain supportive, the pace of growth is likely to be slower and more measured.
One of the key indicators highlighted in the report is Coinbase’s proprietary Global M2 Money Supply Index, which has historically led Bitcoin’s price movements by roughly three to four months. The index remains aligned with positive price support in the near term, suggesting Bitcoin could maintain stability through the current quarter. However, researchers also warn that money supply growth is expected to moderate later in the period, potentially limiting upside momentum.
Derivatives market data reinforce this shift toward caution. Open interest in Bitcoin options has now surpassed that of perpetual futures, signalling that investors are increasingly prioritising downside protection over leveraged bets on price direction. This trend reflects a broader preference for hedging strategies rather than risk-heavy positioning, particularly amid ongoing uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and global trade dynamics.
On-chain activity paints a similar picture. Bitcoin transaction velocity increased toward the end of last year, while the proportion of long-held supply declined slightly. Rather than indicating panic selling, the data suggest that long-term holders have been redistributing assets and adjusting exposure, pointing to internal reallocation rather than an exit from the market. At the same time, sentiment indicators show that optimism has softened since October, with investors adopting a more cautious stance as unrealised gains and losses level out.
Taken together, these signals suggest Bitcoin may be transitioning into a phase marked by steadier price action and closer alignment with macroeconomic conditions. Still, the report cautions that risks remain. A sharper slowdown in liquidity growth, renewed inflation pressures, or unexpected geopolitical events could challenge the market’s emerging stability.
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading around $89,000, up modestly on the day and largely unchanged over the past week, underscoring the subdued but steady tone that now appears to define the market.
