The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025 upward to 3.4%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the earlier forecast of 3.0% in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
This update, presented in the July 2025 edition of the WEO, indicates increased confidence in Nigeria’s short-term economic trajectory, despite persistent global headwinds and domestic policy challenges.
According to the IMF, Nigeria is now expected to sustain the 3.4% growth rate into 2025, with a slight dip to 3.2% in 2026. Notably, this 2026 forecast also marks a 0.5 percentage point improvement over the April report.
The improved outlook is tied to a broader global rebound supported by looser financial conditions, lower-than-anticipated trade barriers, and steady trade flows.
Compared to peers, Nigeria’s growth projections place it ahead of South Africa, whose estimates remain unchanged at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026. However, Nigeria still trails the average growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa, which stands at 4.0% for 2025 and 4.3% for 2026.
The global economic landscape has also shown slight improvement. The IMF anticipates worldwide growth of 3.0% in 2025—a 0.2 percentage point increase from its previous forecast—fuelled by a temporary upswing in trade and investment activities prompted by expected tariff hikes.
In its update, the IMF explained: “Global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The forecast for 2025 is 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the reference forecast of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 0.1 percentage point higher for 2026.
“This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, a path similar to the one projected in April.
“The overall picture hides notable cross-country differences, with forecasts predicting inflation will remain above target in the United States and be more subdued in other large economies.”
Despite the optimism, the Fund warned that the trade-driven acceleration may not be sustainable, with the risk of a downturn in 2026 due to the absence of similar stimulus factors.
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.13% year-on-year in real terms during the first quarter of 2025, according to the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marks a notable rebound from the 2.27% recorded in the same period in 2024, highlighting sustained economic resilience.
The growth was largely driven by the robust performance in the services and industrial sectors, both of which maintained upward momentum despite existing structural challenges.
In nominal terms, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased to N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, up from N79.51 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2024—a year-on-year increase of 18.30%.
The NBS stated in its report: “Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.13% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 2.27% recorded in the first quarter of 2024.”
This data comes on the heels of Nigeria’s successful rebasing of its GDP from the previous 2010 benchmark to a new base year of 2019. According to the NBS, this recalibration was necessary to provide a more accurate and contemporary reflection of the nation’s economic structure.
