Bitcoin could be trading at around $1.4 million per coin by 2035 under a new long-term valuation model that suggests the world’s largest cryptocurrency still has significant upside, despite its already substantial gains over the past decade. The forecast, produced by analysts at CF Benchmarks, outlines a base-case scenario that would require Bitcoin to rise more than 1,500% from current levels, with even more aggressive outcomes possible if adoption accelerates.
According to the model, Bitcoin’s most likely trajectory over the next ten years would see it capturing roughly one-third of gold’s total market capitalisation. That shift would place Bitcoin firmly among the world’s most important stores of value and deliver an estimated annualised return of just over 30%. The analysts argue that this outlook is supported by a combination of structural factors, including increasing institutional participation, improving liquidity, and a gradual reduction in price volatility as the market matures.
The report also highlights Bitcoin’s growing appeal as a hedge against monetary debasement, noting that its historically low correlation with traditional asset classes enhances its role in diversified investment portfolios. As regulatory clarity improves across major markets and access to regulated investment products expands, the analysts believe Bitcoin will become easier for large investors to allocate to at scale, reinforcing long-term demand.
While the base-case forecast already implies dramatic gains, the model’s bull case paints an even more ambitious picture. In a scenario where institutional and sovereign adoption accelerate significantly, Bitcoin’s price could rise to nearly $3 million per coin by 2035. Under this assumption, Bitcoin would emerge as a dominant global store of value, surpassing many traditional benchmarks and reshaping the global financial landscape.
Even the model’s more conservative outlook remains bullish by most standards. In its bear case, Bitcoin is projected to follow its long-term historical trend while capturing around 16% of gold’s market capitalisation. That would still imply a price of approximately $637,000 per coin by 2035, far above current levels.
These projections are broadly in line with views expressed by several prominent figures in the crypto and technology sectors. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood has previously forecast Bitcoin reaching $1.2 million by 2030, while Strategy chairman Michael Saylor has suggested the asset could hit $1 million within the next decade and potentially far more over a longer horizon. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has also spoken publicly about the possibility of multi-million-dollar Bitcoin valuations.
For now, however, those targets remain distant. Bitcoin is trading below $90,000, well off its October peak, underscoring the gap between short-term price action and long-term expectations. Even so, the model suggests that if adoption trends continue and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive, today’s prices could one day look modest in hindsight.
