Nigeria’s inflation rate moderated to 18.02 per cent year-on-year in September 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This marks a continued decline in the headline inflation rate since the bureau adopted the new base year of 2024.
The September figure represents a 0.72 per cent month-on-month increase, slightly lower than the 0.74 per cent recorded in August 2025, reflecting a mild slowdown in the rate at which consumer prices are rising.
According to the NBS, the 12-month CPI series shows a steady disinflation trend, falling from 35.20 per cent in September 2024 under the old 2009 base year to 18.02 per cent in September 2025 under the revised base-year framework.
The Food Index, which tracks changes in the cost of food items, stood at 16.87 per cent year-on-year in September, indicating a notable moderation compared to previous months.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 1.57 per cent, a sharp contrast to the 1.65 per cent increase recorded in August 2025. This decline suggests easing price pressures in key food categories, possibly due to improved domestic supply and favourable harvest conditions.
Meanwhile, the Core Inflation Index—which excludes the volatile prices of farm produce and energy—rose to 19.53 per cent year-on-year, with a 1.42 per cent month-on-month increase, down slightly from 1.43 per cent in August. The data suggest that while food prices are easing, non-food items such as housing, transport, and clothing continue to exert upward pressure on the overall inflation basket.
The breakdown of inflation by geographical classification shows that urban consumers experienced a 17.50 per cent year-on-year inflation rate, while rural areas recorded a slightly higher 18.26 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate increased by 0.74 per cent compared to 0.49 per cent in August, whereas the rural rate rose by 0.67 per cent, slowing from 1.38 per cent in the previous month.
The NBS explained that the CPI measures “the average changes over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people,” providing key insights into the cost of living across Nigeria’s urban and rural sectors.
Economists note that the downward trend in headline and food inflation may reflect the impact of recent fiscal and monetary tightening measures by the government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). However, the persistent rise in core inflation highlights lingering structural issues such as high energy costs, transportation bottlenecks, and exchange rate volatility.
Analysts say that sustained moderation in inflation could bolster consumer purchasing power and support modest economic growth in the coming quarters—provided that food supply chains remain stable and monetary policy continues to anchor price expectations.
