Forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025 are notably more conservative than in previous years, with both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting muted growth.
Despite official rhetoric from the OPEC+ alliance promoting the idea of strong demand supporting higher output, their latest data tells a more cautious story.
Likewise, the IEA’s July monthly report predicts global oil demand will increase by just 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year—the slowest growth rate since 2009.
OPEC’s own July outlook is somewhat more optimistic, projecting an increase of 1.29 million bpd for 2025. Notably, 1.16 million bpd of that is expected to come from developing countries outside the OECD, as reported by Reuters.
The tempered tone marks a stark contrast from 2024, when OPEC was bullish on demand despite Asia—the region most critical to oil pricing—experiencing a decline in imports. While demand and actual imports are distinct, the seaborne oil trade, which makes up about 40% of global daily demand, has a significant influence on price movements.
OPEC had previously forecast that non-OECD Asia would increase oil demand by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for more than half. Yet, data from LSEG Oil Research shows that Asia’s crude imports dropped by 370,000 bpd that year, marking the first decline since the pandemic-induced contraction in 2021.
This discrepancy appears to have tempered expectations for 2025. OPEC now projects just 610,000 bpd in demand growth from non-OECD Asia next year, including 210,000 bpd from China and 160,000 bpd from India.
Similarly, the IEA expects modest gains of 81,000 bpd and 92,000 bpd from China and India, respectively.
However, actual import data from the first half of 2025 tells a more upbeat story. Imports rose to 27.25 million bpd, up 510,000 bpd year-on-year, largely due to opportunistic buying during periods of lower prices.
This uptick in imports may reflect stockpiling activity, which could continue into the second half of the year if global crude prices remain subdued amid rising OPEC+ supply and global economic uncertainty tied to trade tensions.
The clear lesson from recent trends is that crude prices exert a greater influence on demand than long-term forecasts often assume. In 2024, high prices—peaking at over $92 per barrel in April—dampened demand. This year, Brent prices peaked at a softer $82 before sliding below $60 in May, encouraging higher purchases in Asia.
