Oil prices remained stable on Thursday as market participants assessed the potential effects of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies on global economic expansion, while a declining dollar and indicators of robust U.S. gasoline consumption provided price support.
Brent crude futures gained 4 cents to $70.23 per barrel by 0600 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 1 cent to $68.37 per barrel.
Analytics firm Kpler noted that demand-side macro uncertainty has created a more cautious purchasing environment, particularly in Asian markets, while also observing that geopolitical risk premiums have diminished due to the sustained Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Trump threatened Brazil—Latin America’s largest economy—with punitive 50% tariffs on U.S. exports following a public disagreement with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
His administration has announced tariff plans targeting copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, while also sending tariff notifications to the Philippines, Iraq, and other nations. These add to over a dozen letters issued earlier this week, including to major U.S. trade partners such as South Korea and Japan.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes from June 17–18 revealed that only a few officials believed interest rates could be reduced this month, as policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures stemming from Trump’s tariffs.
Elevated interest rates increase borrowing costs and reduce oil demand.
OANDA senior analyst Kelvin Wong noted that a weaker U.S. dollar during Asian trading sessions supported oil prices by making crude cheaper for holders of other currencies.
The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined last week. Gasoline demand rose by 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day, according to the EIA.
JP Morgan reported that global daily flights averaged 107,600 during the first eight days of July, reaching an all-time high. Chinese flights hit a five-month peak, and port and freight activity indicated continued trade expansion compared to last year.
“Year to date, global oil demand growth is averaging 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million barrels per day,” the report stated.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore expressed doubt that recent OPEC+ production quota increases would translate to actual output growth, as some members are already exceeding their quotas.
“And others, like Russia, are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure,” he added.
OPEC+ producers are expected to approve another significant output increase for September, completing the reversal of voluntary production cuts by eight members and accommodating the United Arab Emirates’ larger quota allocation.
