On Tuesday, oil prices increased as the market anticipated an upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday, where experts predict the group will maintain its existing voluntary production cuts.
Brent crude rose by 72 cents, or 1.06%, reaching $68.87 per barrel Tuesday morning. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.33, or 2.08%, to $65.34 per barrel. WTI futures did not trade on Monday due to the U.S. Labour Day holiday.
The focus is on the September 7 meeting of eight OPEC+ members, including key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia. Analysts expect these members to keep their voluntary output reductions in place, which have helped stabilise oil prices around the $60 per barrel mark, according to Reuters.
Independent analyst Gaurav Sharma suggested that OPEC+ may delay decisions on adjusting cuts until after the U.S. summer driving season, citing an anticipated supply surplus in Q4.
In related developments, Saudi Aramco and Iraq’s state oil company have halted crude oil supplies to India’s Nayara Energy following EU sanctions imposed in July on the Russian-backed refiner, according to three informed sources.
“The market is starting to wonder how that will impact flows. There is some concern about availability in the non-sanctioned pool of oil, which may be becoming more dear supply-wise, as there is going to be less opportunity to buy these grey market barrels if sanctions ratchet up,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.
Investors are also monitoring the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held from August 31 to September 1, 2025, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The summit, which included over 20 leaders from non-Western nations, including India’s Narendra Modi, promoted a new global economic and security framework prioritising the “Global South,” challenging U.S. dominance.
“This was an important conference that was not on everyone’s radar as it should have been,” Kilduff said.
The event could prompt a response from U.S. President Donald Trump, potentially leading to additional sanctions, particularly on India, which may bolster oil prices, according to Kilduff.
Meanwhile, India is negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S., as announced by India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday. This follows Washington’s decision to double tariffs on Indian goods in response to New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian oil.
Market sentiment is also supported by expectations of another U.S. crude inventory draw, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The U.S. summer driving season, the peak demand period for the world’s largest fuel market, concluded with the Labour Day holiday on Monday.
On the supply side, Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted facilities accounting for at least 17% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity, equivalent to 1.1 million barrels per day, based on Reuters’ estimates.
In Kazakhstan, crude oil production (excluding gas condensate) increased to 1.88 million barrels per day in August, up 2% from 1.84 million barrels per day in July, according to a source familiar with the data.
