Oil markets dipped on Friday as traders anticipated that OPEC+ members might decide to ramp up production during their upcoming meeting, while Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.
As of Friday afternoon, Brent crude fell by $0.70 (1.02%) to trade at $68.10 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped by $0.72 (1.07%) to settle at $66.28. The U.S. Independence Day holiday contributed to reduced trading activity, according to Reuters.
Despite Friday’s decline, both benchmarks were on course to end the week with modest gains—Brent up by 0.5% and WTI by approximately 1.2% from last week’s close.
OPEC+ is reportedly considering an additional 411,000-barrel-per-day increase in output for August, continuing a monthly upward trend aimed at regaining market share. The coalition has moved its decision forward to Saturday.
Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates noted: “If the group decides to increase its output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as expected, for the fourth successive month, oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will be reassessed and will suggest an accelerated swelling of global oil reserves.”
Markets were also unsettled by reports from Axios that the U.S. plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, while Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterated the country’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that he was open to meeting Iranian officials “if necessary,” despite imposing new sanctions aimed at restricting Iran’s oil trade.
Further compounding the uncertainty was the looming deadline for U.S. tariff hikes, with Washington expected to begin notifying countries of applicable new tariff rates starting Friday.
Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, commented: “The oil market might take on more of a direction next week once we have the results of the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend, and because Trump’s tariff deadlines are due next week.”
Meanwhile, Barclays revised its Brent price outlook, raising its forecast to $72 per barrel for 2025 and $70 for 2026, citing a more optimistic demand scenario.
