Global oil markets showed minimal movement on Monday as traders weighed the impact of fresh European sanctions targeting Russian oil supplies, concerns that potential tariffs could curb fuel consumption, and signs of increased output from Middle Eastern producers.
Brent crude futures rose by 6 cents to $69.34 per barrel by Monday morning, following a 0.35% decline on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 17 cents to trade at $67.51 per barrel after falling 0.30% in the previous session.
The European Union ratified its 18th sanctions package against Russia on Friday over the ongoing war in Ukraine. The new measures affected, among others, India’s Nayara Energy—a company that exports refined products derived from Russian crude—according to Reuters.
Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded by saying that Russia had built significant resilience against Western sanctions.
These EU sanctions came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump issued fresh warnings that buyers of Russian exports could face American sanctions unless Russia reaches a peace agreement within 50 days.
Analysts at ING noted that the muted reaction in oil prices reflected traders’ doubts about the effectiveness of the latest sanctions.
“However, the part of the package likely to have the biggest market impact is the EU’s ban on imports of refined oil products made from Russian crude in third countries,” said ING analysts led by Warren Patterson. “But clearly, it will be challenging to trace crude oil inputs in refineries located in these countries and, as a result, enforce the ban.”
Meanwhile, Iran—another oil producer under international sanctions—plans to resume nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul on Friday, according to a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry. This follows warnings from the three European powers that failure to re-engage in negotiations would prompt renewed global sanctions.
In the United States, the number of active oil drilling rigs fell by two to 422 last week, reaching the lowest level since September 2021, according to data from Baker Hughes released on Friday.
Separately, U.S. tariffs on European Union imports are scheduled to take effect on August 1. However, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed optimism on Sunday about reaching a trade deal with the EU before the deadline.
“U.S. tariff concerns will continue to weigh on sentiment in the lead-up to the August 1 deadline, while some support may come from inventory data if it points to tight supply,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. “It feels very much like a $64–$70 range in play for the week ahead.”
Brent crude futures have traded between a low of $66.34 and a high of $71.53 following the June 24 ceasefire agreement that ended the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran.
