Global oil prices ticked upward on Monday as markets weighed supply disruptions from escalating Russia-Ukraine hostilities against fears of oversupply and weaker demand.
Brent crude Monday morning was up 31 cents (0.46%) at $67.79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 32 cents (0.5%) to $64.33. Trading volumes remained light due to a U.S. public holiday.
August marked the first monthly decline in four months for both Brent and WTI, losing over 6%, pressured by higher output from the OPEC+ alliance.
“Crude fell in August and has started September with no clear direction within established ranges as fears of a fourth-quarter supply glut are offset by geopolitical tensions,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Markets are also eyeing an upcoming OPEC+ meeting on September 7, while tracking developments in Beijing, where Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi are attending a regional summit.
Concerns persist over Russia’s oil exports. According to ANZ analysts citing tanker data, shipments from Russian ports dropped to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowing more strikes in retaliation.
Adding to the bearish outlook, U.S. crude output reached a record 13.58 million barrels per day in June, up by 133,000 bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration.
A recent Reuters poll suggests oil prices are unlikely to climb much higher this year as supply growth and U.S. tariff risks dampen demand prospects.
Currency markets added another layer of support, as the U.S. dollar fell to a five-week low, making oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
