Nigeria, once synonymous with high volumes of imported refined petroleum, has now relinquished its long-standing position as Africa’s top importer.
In a notable realignment of the continent’s energy dynamics, South Africa has stepped into that role.
This shift comes in the wake of increased output from the Dangote Refinery, a colossal industrial complex near Lagos that began full-scale operations in 2024. The facility has already begun to reshape sub-Saharan Africa’s fuel trade, significantly reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
Valued at $20 billion and capable of refining up to 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, the Dangote Refinery is the largest single-train refinery in the world. Its phased ramp-up has started to reverse Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on foreign refineries, where the country previously exported its crude only to import costlier refined products.
Fresh data from CITAC, an energy market consultancy, shows Nigeria’s refined product imports dropped to 3.1 million tons in the first quarter of 2025. By comparison, South Africa brought in 4.2 million tons during the same period — a dramatic role reversal.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, executive director at CITAC, as quoted by Businessday. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
This shift is part of a larger trend where African nations are seeking to strengthen their own refining capacities and reduce exposure to volatile global supply chains. Countries including Angola, Uganda, and Mozambique are pursuing new refining initiatives to better utilise domestic oil reserves.
However, launching and sustaining large-scale refining operations in Africa has been anything but straightforward. The Dangote project itself experienced numerous delays and escalating costs before it reached operational status. Nonetheless, its activation marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s ongoing effort to achieve energy self-sufficiency.
Historically, despite producing over 1.3 million barrels of crude oil daily, Nigeria had been heavily reliant on imports to meet domestic fuel needs. Now, as the Dangote facility begins to absorb more of that crude, the demand for foreign petrol has begun to decline, albeit gradually.
Meanwhile, South Africa is grappling with the opposite reality. Years of underinvestment, industrial incidents, and ageing infrastructure have weakened its refining industry. Since 2020, nearly half of the country’s refining capacity has been shut down, increasing its dependency on imports.
The situation worsened when Sapref — South Africa’s largest refinery and a joint venture between BP and Shell — was mothballed in 2022. Although the government acquired the facility in 2023, there is no clear timeline for its revival.
Transnet SOC Ltd, the state-owned logistics firm, reports that over 60 per cent of the nation’s fuel needs are now being met through imports. This has opened the door for international fuel traders to fill the supply gap.
Firms such as Glencore Plc and Vitol SA have stepped in, boosting fuel shipments to South Africa. According to CITAC, the country is on track to import about 15.5 million tons of refined products in 2025 — more than double Nigeria’s projected 6.4 million tons and nearly twice as much as Kenya’s 8.9 million tons.
This growing reliance has attracted global attention. Swiss trading company Gunvor, for instance, was shortlisted as a potential buyer for Shell’s retail operations in South Africa, highlighting increased interest in the country’s downstream fuel sector.
“South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is now attracting foreign traders who can bridge the gap,” said one industry executive familiar with the negotiations.
Though no longer Africa’s top fuel importer, Nigeria is beginning to reap the benefits of its evolving energy landscape. The country could see improvements in its trade balance, reduced pressure on foreign reserves, and a stronger naira, particularly as fuel import subsidies — a persistent strain on government finances — become less necessary.
Conversely, South Africa’s rise as the continent’s largest importer offers short-term solutions and long-term challenges. While it ensures fuel availability, it also leaves the economy vulnerable to external shocks, currency fluctuations, and supply chain instability.
As the energy map of Africa continues to evolve, both nations find themselves at critical junctures — one looking inward to reduce dependence, the other turning outward to secure supply.
